Vrooom

After doing my pre-learner course last weekend with Seb, I did my motorbike license theory test today. The upshot of which is that I have a learner motorbike license. Oh. Yeah.

Picking a specialist spinner pays off

Jason Krejza has just returned the 8th best figures for a bowler on debut. Makes you wonder what would have happened if they'd picked a specialist spinner from the off. I'm happy to be proven wrong, but India still managed to compile a solid total for Australia to chase. It's looking like it could be a good Test match.

The search for a spinner

With both SMH and Cricinfo speculating that off-spinner Jason Krejza may make his test debut in the fourth Test against India, it seems the time is right to have a bit of a look at the Australian spin bowling stocks. Krejza seems an odd choice. The 25 year old has only 24 games of first class cricket to his name, with a bowling average of 50 and a relatively solid batting average of 23. However, in a game earlier in this tour of India against the Board President's XI, he returned the very unflattering figures of 0 for 199 for the match, with the figures of 0 for 76 from 11 overs in the second innings. In the Sheffield Shield last season (well done Sanitarium for giving the competition it's proper name back, by the way), Krejza took 18 wickets at an average of 47 in seven games for Tasmania. He has yet to take 5 wickets in an innings. So who else could fill the gap left by the retirement of Warne and MacGill? Let's start with the current choice: Cameron White.
White is also 25 and currently holds a Cricket Australia contract. He's a handy batsman, with a first class average of 40. His first class bowling average is somewhat less flattering, standing at 38. He became captain of Victoria in 2003/04 at the age of twenty, making him the states youngest ever captain. In 2007/08 he guided Victoria to the finals of all three forms of the game, but returned only 6 wickets at an average of 47 in Sheffield Shield. White has described his own bowling as nothing special, and his returns in the first 3 tests would seem to back this up. Interestingly, Simon Katich has a better first class bowling average (37), while Michael Clarke's bowling performance's at Test level have proved him to be a handy contributor with the ball. White is not an out and out wicket taker, and with Katich and Clarke in the team, his part time leggy's seem superfluous. As a one-day player White has a solid batting average of 26 at a strike rate of 108, with a bowling average of 30, suggesting that he may be more suited to the shorter form of the game at international level. Suitability as a replacement for Warne/MacGill: low.
Next up, another currently contracted player: Beau Casson. Casson, also 25, moved to NSW from WA after the 2005/06 season. His first class batting average is 36, while his bowling average is 41. However, his Sheffield Shield figures for 2007/08 are more impressive: 29 wickets at 35 and 485 runs at 60 made it a good season for the left armer. This led to Casson being selected for the tour of the Windies earlier this year, where he returned the respectable match figures of 3 for 129 on debut. Despite this, Krejza and Bryce McGain were chosen to go to India. Ali Cook of Cricinfo points out that the performance of Katich, especially in the third Test, is proof that Cricket Australia should have taken Casson to India. As a handy batsman and a spinner able to extract good turn, Casson would seem to be a better choice than either Krejza or White. Suitability as a replacement for Warne/MacGill: moderate.
Bryce McGain: A 36 year old, McGain struggled to get a berth in a Victorian side that boasted Shane Warne, Colin Miller and Cameron White amongst its slow bowlers. In 2007/08 he took an impressive 38 wickets at 34 - the most of any spinner in Sheffield Shield. McGain boasts a first class bowling average of 33, but his batting average is only 12. However, with Lee, Johnson and Clark all relatively handy with the bat, McGain doesn't necessarily have to contribute. The main thing that counts against him as a long term proposition is his age. While unable to play in India due to injury, he is still probably the best suited as a replacement for Warne/MacGill, but like Brad Hogg before him, he's just not going to be around for that much longer. Warne and MacGill were wicket takers, and that is what McGain appears to be too. Suitability as a replacement for Warne/MacGill: high (in the short term).
Nathan Hauritz: While Hauritz was left out of the Blues squad for the October 8 Sheffield Shield match, his performance for the Blues in the Ford Ranger Cup game that I went to on the weekend demanded his inclusion here. Defending 270-odd, the Blus got away to a horror start after Burt Cockley and Moises Enriques were taken for more than 10 runs per over each for the first 6 or so overs. Hauritz was brought on and immediately pulled the run rate back, going for 7 runs from his first 3 overs. While he didn't take any wickets, his ability to stem the flow of runs was impressive. Hauritz played a single Test for Australia in 2004, in which he returned figures of 5/103. However, like Cameron White, his figures suggest that he is more suited to the shorter form of the game, a sentiment that the NSW selectors apparently share. With first class averages of 16 and 49 for his batting and bowling respectively it would seem that a Test call-up is unlikely any time soon, but I still like the cut of his jib. In terms of filling the Warne/MacGill void he doesn't seem particularly suitable unfortunately. Suitability as a replacement for Warne/MacGill: low.
Dan Cullen: With Cullen Bailey struggling to hold onto a spot with the Redbacks, Dan Cullen has emerged as the more likely of the two to step up to the next level. After taking 43 wickets at 30 in his second summer in 2005-06, Cullen took only 18 at 49 in 07/08. He has a first class bowling average of 42 and returned match figures of 1/54 in his only Test. While Cullen has undoubtedly dropped down the list, he definitely deserves consideration. Suitability as a replacement for Warne/MacGill: moderate.
In the short term at least it seems that Bryce McGain is the most suitable replacement for Warne/MacGill, but in the longer term is has to be said that Beau Casson is probably best placed after his solid, if not remarkable debut in the West Indies. He also has the ability to contribute with the bat and is still relatively young. Still, it will be interesting to see how Krejza performs, if he's given the chance - it's likely that the selectors know more about cricket than I do...

Attribution of polar warming to human influence

A freely available article published in Nature Geoscience this week has established that polar warming is due to human activity:

Our findings demonstrate that anthropogenic influence is detectable in Antarctic land surface temperature, and distinguishable from a naturally forced response... In the Arctic, some authors have suggested that observed Arctic temperature changes are inconsistent with climate model predictions and dominated by internal variability and indeed so far no formal attribution studies of Arctic temperature change exist. We find that anthropogenic influence on Arctic temperature is detectable and distinguishable from the influence of natural forcings.

While this isn't exactly news to anyone with half a brain, it is undoubtedly an important piece of research, and a compelling counter-argument to those who say that global warming is a myth. The website of the some of the researchers who did this work, from Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, also has some interesting stuff on Climate change myths.